Becoming a carbon-free household


I’m very happy to say that earlier this year my wife and I finished electrifying our home and became a carbon-free household. We have gotten rid of all our natural gas appliances, and solar panels provide the power for our core electrical needs. Furthermore, we’ve signed up for a program so that all the electricity we need in excess of what our solar panels provide comes from clean energy sources.

Here’s what’s even better – electrifying all of these appliances has made for an objectively better home. Our home is a better living environment because we’ve upgraded each appliance – the fact that we’re doing our part to reduce CO2 emissions, the fact that we got a bunch of rebates in the process, and the fact that we’re going to have lower utility bills are great side benefits.

I’m going to use this blog to talk about our journey in going carbon-free. For more general advice, I’d strongly recommend checking out the materials from a non-profit called Rewiring America. They have a guide to “Electrify Everything in Your Home” that’s a fantastic resource.

I want to give particular thanks to Diane and Eric of emeraldECO. They served as consultants, advisors, and a general contractor for us for our entire electrification journey. If you’re on the Peninsula in the SF/Bay Area and want to electrify your home, I’d strongly recommend that you reach out to them. They were upfront with us about trade-offs, made recommendations that turned out to be very smart and valuable, and have made sure we’re getting all the possible rebates and benefits from the work.

In the coming days/weeks I plan on writing more about each part in electrifying a home, but here are the core building blocks that cover electrification. Please subscribe (in the blog sidebar) to get future posts by email.

Building blocks to electrifying our home

Electrical panel / Infrastructure

Our home is over 70 years old, and we needed to upgrade it from a 100 Amp panel to a 200 Amp panel. And because of renovations on our house over the years, this meant we needed to relocate where the wires from PG&E connected to our home.

Solar Panels

The previous owner of our home had contracted with Sunrun to lease solar panels, which we took over when we purchased our home. (I had previously purchased solar panels for our previous home; there are some trade-offs when considering leasing versus purchasing.) We’ve got a ~6kW system, which in the summer generates 33+ kWh/day and in the winter generates ~12 kWh/day.

Induction Range

We got rid of a gas range for an electric induction range. The experience has been fantastic. Induction ranges heat up incredibly quickly and have immediate and precise temperature control. What’s more is that it’s so much safer than a gas stove – my wife and I are far more willing to let our daughter cook on the induction range unsupervised (or lightly supervised), where that was never the case with our old gas range.

Heat Pump Water Heater

Fundamentally a water heater is a pretty simple appliance. But by upgrading to a heat pump water heater, we’ve gotten some great features like precise control over water temperatures, the ability to set schedules and preferences for when our water heater operates, etc. And it removes another source of burning gas from our home.

Heat Pump HVAC

Upgrading our furnace and A/C to a heat pump has been a massive win. Some of this is because our HVAC installer ensured that we had the correctly-sized air returns and ducting to support our home. Part of this was because our old A/C unit was on its last legs and barely provided any cooling at all.

The engineer in me loves the efficiency gains that come from heat pumps: instead of burning gas to heat the air, it just moves the hot air it captures from the outdoors to warm the air instead. Moving hot air requires FAR less energy than generating heat.

Electric Vehicle and EV Charger

We long wanted to get an electric vehicle, and got our Rivian R1S in May of 2023. As part of this whole project we wired in an EV Charger so we can charge our car at home (typically overnight) instead of ever going to a gas station. It’s a Level 2 charger (240V with a 60Amp breaker, with 48Amps continuous power).

The whole experience of owning and driving an electric vehicle has been transformative. Our Rivian has instant acceleration, is incredibly smooth, is super quiet, and just incredibly fun to drive.

Home Battery

Some people choose to install home batteries (like Tesla Powerwalls), but we chose not to. They’re pretty expensive, and we didn’t have a great place to physically locate it. Power outages happen in our neighborhood a couple times a year, but rarely last long enough for the math on a home battery to make sense.

Plus… the battery in our Rivian is roughly the size of 10 Tesla Powerwalls. Rivian has said they’re developing a new charger that will allow users to power their home from their Rivian. I definitely plan on purchasing that when available because the benefits in that case will most certainly make sense.

Clothes Dryer

I’m adding this for the people who read this who might have a gas-burning clothes dryer. (Apparently about 10% of Americans?) There are varying levels of efficiency in dryers, so pick the one that offers the best balance of electrical efficiency and performance that’s right for you.

Pity Bowl – 2023 edition

College football is great – I’ve been blessed to be a Michigan alum & fan over the past three years, with three straight trips to the College Football Playoffs. #GoBlue!

But here’s what irritates me about college bowl games – there’s too damn many of them that they don’t mean much. Don’t get me wrong, it’s great around the holidays to watch football – especially when compared to the standard “nothing else good on television” fare. But I think it’s important for a football team to HAVE A WINNING RECORD to go to a bowl game.

Out of the 43 Bowl games being played by FBS schools, there are 11 bowl games where one or both teams don’t have a winning record. (Just like last year.) There are five teams below that have 7-5 (winning!) records, so 3 of the 11 games could be salvaged. That’s certainly what I would recommend.

The 2023 “Pity Bowls”

Pity Bowl GameDateTeamTeam
Independence Bowl16 DecCal (6-6)Texas Tech (6-6)
Famous Toastery Bowl18 DecWestern Kentucky (7-5)Old Dominion (6-6)
Boca Raton Bowl21 DecSouth Florida (6-6)Syracuse (6-6)
Gasparilla Bowl22 DecUCF (6-6)Georgia Tech (6-6)
Camellia Bowl23 DecArkansas State (6-6)Northern Illinois (6-6)
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl23 DecGeorgia State (6-6)Utah State (6-6)
68 Ventures Bowl23 DecSouth Alabama (6-6)Eastern Michigan (6-6)
Quick Lane Bowl26 DecBowling Green (7-5)Minnesota (5-7)
First Responder Bowl26 DecTexas State (7-5)Rice (6-6)
Pinstripe Bowl28 DecRutgers (6-6)Miami (FL) (7-5)
Music City Bowl30 DecMaryland (7-5)Auburn (6-6)

EV production ramp: Rivian, Tesla, and Lucid (2023 Q2 edition)

It’s been about four months since my last post comparing the data on the production ramp comparing the early history of Tesla and Rivian. Crucially:

  • two more quarters of data have been released
  • I’ve updated the charts so they’re more clear on the timeline
  • I’ve added Lucid Motors as an additional comparison

Production Ramp Data

Rivian continues to outpace Tesla’s production at the equivalent point in their histories, delivering >12.5k vehicles in Y2Q4, compared to Tesla’s production of >7.5k vehicles. Rivian also continues to state they’re on track to produce 50,000 vehicles in 2023, which is modeled with the “Rivian – projected” line in the chart below. (In a very naive sense of “modeled”.) Rivian should continue to outpace Tesla’s manufacturing benchmark for many quarters to come.

Lucid Motors unfortunately continues to lag behind both Tesla and Rivian at the equivalent point, only delivering 1404 vehicles in the last quarter. At the same point in their history, Rivian delivered >7900 vehicles and Tesla delivered >6400 vehicles. Lucid’s vehicles seem to be pretty fantastic and I’ve definitely seen some on the roads in the SF/Bay Area. I sincerely hope they’re able to grow.

The thing I’m perhaps most excited about for the future of Rivian is that they’re producing at least 4 different vehicles across 2 different platforms. Consumers can purchase the R1T (pickup) or R1S (SUV), and Amazon is purchasing thousands of delivery vans across two different models. At the same point in their history, Tesla was only producing the Model S.

That Rivian has managed to continue a production ramp despite the complexity of multiple vehicles and platforms speaks well to their future ability to manage a growing family of vehicles and options.

Not a neutral observer

I need to admit I’m not a neutral observer. A long-time good friend of mine was an early hire at Rivian so I’ve had positive feelings for the company for years. Also, I’m one of those 12.5k deliveries for Rivian in Q2 2023! My wife and I took delivery of our R1S (Forest Green, Forest Edge interior, 21″ wheels) in May, and we absolutely love it.

EV production ramp: comparing Tesla and Rivian

Tesla and Rivian are the two biggest new car companies producing electric vehicles in the United States, and I recently thought it’d be interesting to compare their production ramps over time. As a massive proponent of electric vehicles and electrification generally, I think comparing Rivian to the benchmark growth rates Tesla has set can help shape an understanding of what’s possible for new car companies. (Obviously it’s different compared to existing car manufacturers, for a variety of reasons!) I also have a reservation for a Rivian R1S, but am generally interested in the success of any new EV manufacturer.

I’ll outline the relevant early history of both companies below, and then get into the charts. While Rivian took much longer from its founding to unveiling its prototype vehicles, it’s now on a much faster production ramp than Tesla was at the same point in its history.

Tesla

Tesla was founded in 2003, and the Tesla Roadster started production in 2008. But the Roadster was a vehicle that was produced in partnership with Lotus cars; the Roadster was a (highly) modified Lotus Elise chassis. When compared to scalable vehicle production lines, it’s just not the same.

The true car company history of Tesla arguably starts in 2010, when Tesla bought their Fremont factory from Toyota. This was needed for the Tesla Model S, which had already been unveiled in 2009, and which started production in 2012. The Tesla Model S was the only vehicle Tesla manufactured from mid-2012 to mid-2015.

Rivian

Rivian was founded in 2009. It purchased its factory in Normal, Illinois from Mitsubushi in 2017, and unveiled the R1T pickup truck and R1S SUV in November 2018 at the LA Auto Show. Amazon invested in Rivian in 2019 and announced a deal to purchase 100k electric delivery vans (EDVs).

Rivian started production in mid-2021. This production was across two platforms and multiple individual vehicles: the consumer platform (R1T and R1S vehicles) as well as the EDV platform.

Tesla vs Rivian – indexing production ramps

I went back to press releases from both companies to get data on vehicle production. Tesla started manufacturing and delivering Tesla Model S’s in Q2 2012, but only started reporting production numbers starting in Q3 2012. Rivian started manufacturing and delivering R1Ts in Q3 2021, but only announced 2021 full-year production numbers, so I’ve assumed ~5% of the full-year production happened in Q3, with the balance in Q4.

Sync’ing this up, Tesla started mass production/delivery in Q3 2012, and Rivian started mass production/delivery in Q3 2021, nine years later. (x-axis for the chart below is indexed to Rivian’s timeline)

Tesla vs Rivian – comparison

Tesla was able to very quickly ramp to deliverying 5,000 vehicles (specifically just the Tesla Model S) per quarter. But from then, growth was slower, taking eight quarters (two years) to cross the 10,000 vehicles/quarter threshold.

Rivian’s ramp in year one has been slower, taking five quarters (versus two) to cross the 5,000 vehicles/quarter threshold. But again, Rivian has been producing five different vehicles across two different vehicle platforms. This accelerated in 2022, and Rivian is also now on a much faster production ramp than Tesla was at the equivalent point in its history.

This is also on track to continue throughout 2023 and 2024. The red line above is my projections for Rivian growth, based on its expected 50,000 vehicle production in 2023 and extending that rate a bit further. (There are rumors that Rivian could potentially exceed this by 20% in 2023, too.)

Extending further into the future

Rivian’s factory in Normal, IL reportedly has a maximum production capacity of 200k vehicles/year, or 50k/quarter. If we take the (very bad, possibly low-balled) assumption of the expected production ramp from 2023 into the future and compare it to Tesla, you get this:

Tesla started scaling massively with the launch of the Model 3, which began deliveries in 2017 Q3. Just one year later (2018 Q3) Tesla was manufacturing more Model 3’s per quarter than Model S’s and Model X’s combined. Indexed to Rivian’s timeline, this is equivalent to launching a new vehicle platform in 2026 Q3 and scaling it by 2027 Q3.

Interestingly, Rivian has already started construction on a new production plant in Georgia that (with the existing plant in Normal, IL) should allow the company to grow to 600k vehicles/year, or 150k vehicles/quarter. It has also stated that they expect to launch the R2 platform (lower-priced vehicles, similar to Tesla Model 3/Y) in 2026 and specifically manufacture it at this Georgia plant.

The next 12-24 months at Rivian will be interesting – will they be able to keep growing the production rate? How long will it take to get the maximum possible production from the Normal, IL plant? Right now Rivian is producing more vehicles per quarter than Tesla at the equivalent point. If the company is able to launch the Georgia plant and start manufacturing the R2 platform there in 2026 as expected, they may be able to continue to beat the production benchmarks that Tesla has set over the last decade.